VarietyAwards Circuitsection is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars,Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated byVarietysenior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual
Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
Weekly Commentary (Updated Nov. 14, 2024): Jacques Audiard’s crime musical, “Emilia Pérez,” will now be officially submitted as an adapted screenplay for the Academy Awards, despite initially positioning itself as an original script. The film is also not WGA signatory, which means it will not be eligible for a nomination at the WGA Awards.
The shift in strategy stems from the fact that Audiard developed the screenplay from what was originally intended as an opera libretto in four acts. The title character was loosely inspired by a chapter from Boris Razon’s 2018 novel, “Écoute.”
However, it’s worth noting that musicals have historically faced challenges in the screenplay categories. Only one musical, “Gigi” (1958), directed by Vincente Minnelli, has ever won for adapted screenplay. That film swept the Oscars, winning all nine nominations, including best picture and director. Notably, only two musicals have claimed victory for original screenplay: “Interrupted Melody” (1955), a biopic about Australian opera singer Marjorie Lawrence, and “An American in Paris” (1951), which won six of its eight nominations, including best picture.
Since the Academy’s inception, only 12 musicals have been nominated for adaptation, the last of which was 2002’s “Chicago,” which lost to “The Pianist.” With “Emilia, Audiard has crafted a film that blends crime, identity, and music in a way that could resonate with voters alike. Whether it can break the musical screenplay curse remains to be seen, but its uniqueness makes it one to watch this awards season.
Focus Features’ “The Bikeriders,” directed and written by Jeff Nichols, will compete for the Academy Award in the best adapted screenplay category.
“The Bikeriders,” tells a fictionalized story based on the Midwestern motorcycle club documented in Lyon’s photographs. The narrative spans over a decade, offering a deep dive into the lives of the club’s members. Danny Lyon’s book, first published in 1968, features black-and-white photographs alongside interviews he conducted with Chicago Outlaws Motorcycle Club members between 1963 and 1967. Notably, “The Bikeriders” is still considered an original screenplay by the WGA and will compete for a nomination in the upcoming WGA Awards.
Below are the updated rankings of contenders. The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. The full rankings are below. All movie listings, titles, distributors, and credited producers are not final and are subject to change.
The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. The full rankings are below. All movie listings, titles, distributors, and credited producers are not final and are subject to change.
** denotes the film is not yet dated or can open in 2025.
And the Predicted Nominees Are
Rank
Performer & Film
1
“Conclave” (Focus Features) — Peter Straughan (based on “Conclave” by Robert Harris)
2
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) — Jacques Audiard (based on “Listen” by Boris Razon)
3
“The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics) — Pedro Almodóvar (based on “What Are You Going Through” by Sigrid Nunez)
4
“Sing Sing” (A24) — Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John “Divine G” Whitfield (based on “The Sing Sing Follies” by John H. Richardson and “Breakin’ the Mummy’s Code” by Brent Buell)
5
“I’m Still Here” (Sony Pictures Classics) — Murilo Hauser, Heitor Lorega (based on “I’m Still Here” by Marcelo Rubens Paiva)
Oscars: Best Adapted Screenplay (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions)
Next in Line
Rank
Performer & Film
6
“Inside Out 2” (Pixar) — Meg LeFauve, Dave Holstein, Kelsey Mann (based on characters from the film “Inside Out”)
7
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures) — Jay Cocks, James Mangold (based on “Dylan Goes Electric!” by Elijah Wald
8
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) — Denis Villeneuve, Jon Spaihts (based on the series by Frank Herbert)
9
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures) — Winnie Holzman, Dana Fox (based on the musical stage play with music and lyrics by Stephen Schwartz and the book by Winnie Holzman)
10
“The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation) — Chris Sanders (based on the series by Peter Brown)
Oscars: Best Adapted Screenplay (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions)
Other Contenders
Rank
Performer & Film
11
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures) — David Scarpa, Peter Craig (based on characters by David Franzoni)
12
“Nosferatu” (Focus Features) — Robert Eggers (based on “Nosferatu – Eine Symphonie des Grauens” by Wilhelm Murnau and “Dracula” by Bram Stoker)
13
“The Piano Lesson” (Netflix) — Virgil Williams, Malcolm Washington (based on the play by August Wilson)
14
“Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM/Orion) — RaMell Ross, Joslyn Barnes (based on “The Nickel Boys” by Colson Whitehead)
15
“Hit Man” (Netflix) — Richard Linklater, Glen Powell (based on “Hit Man” by Skip Hollandsworth)
16
“Queer” (A24) — Justin Kuritzkes (based on the novel by William S. Burroughs)
17
“The Bikeriders” (Focus Features) — Jeff Nichols (based on “The Bikeriders” by Danny Lyon)
18
“Young Woman and the Sea” (Walt Disney Pictures) — Jeff Nathanson (Based on “Young Woman and the Sea” by Glenn Stout)
19
“The Outrun” (Sony Pictures Classics) — Nora Fingscheidt, Amy Liptrot, Daisy Lewis (Based on “The Outrun” by Liptrot)
20
“Nightbitch” (Searchlight Pictures) — Marielle Heller (based on “Nightbitch” by Rachel Yoder)
Oscars: Best Adapted Screenplay (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions)
Eligible Writers (Best Adapted Screenplay)
** This list is incomplete and not yet finalized. Not all films have distribution or release dates. All categorizations are subject to change.
“Alien: Romulus” (20th Century Studios) — Fede Álvarez, Rodo Sayagues (based on characters by Dan O’Bannon and Ronald Shusett)
“Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” (Warner Bros.) — Alfred Gough, Miles Millar, Seth Grahame-Smith (based on characters by Michael McDowell and Larry Wilson)
“The Bikeriders” (Focus Features) — Jeff Nichols (based on “The Bikeriders” by Danny Lyon)
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures) — Jay Cocks, James Mangold (based on “Dylan Goes Electric!” by Elijah Wald
“Conclave” (Focus Features) — Peter Straughan (based on “Conclave” by Robert Harris)
“Deadpool & Wolverine” (Marvel Studios) — Ryan Reynolds, Rhett Reese, Paul Wernick, Zeb Wills, Shawn Levy (based on characters from Marvel Comics)
“Despicable Me 4” (Illumination/Universal Pictures) — Mike White, Ken Daurio (based on characters by Sergio Pablos, Cinco Paul and Ken Daurio)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) — Denis Villeneuve, Jon Spaihts (based on the series by Frank Herbert)
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) — Jacques Audiard (based on “Listen” by Boris Razon) **
“The Fire Inside” (Amazon MGM) — Barry Jenkins (based on “T-Rex” by Zackary Canepari, Drea Cooper)
“Firebrand” (Roadside Attractions) — Henrietta Ashworth, Jessica Ashworth, Rosanne Flynn (based on “Queen’s Gambit” by Elizabeth Freemantle)
“The Front Room” (A24) — Max Eggers, Sam Egegrs (based on “The Front Room” by Susan Hill)
“Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga” (Warner Bros.) — George Miller, Nico Lathouris (based on characters by George Miller, Byron Kennedy, Nico Lathouris)
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures) — David Scarpa, Peter Craig (based on characters by David Franzoni)
“Here” (Sony Pictures) — Eric Roth, Robert Zemeckis (based on “Here” by Richard McGuire)
“Hit Man” (Netflix) — Richard Linklater, Glen Powell (based on “Hit Man” by Skip Hollandsworth)
“I’m Still Here” (Sony Pictures Classics) — Murilo Hauser, Heitor Lorega (based on “I’m Still Here” by Marcelo Rubens Paiva)
“The Idea of You” (Amazon MGM) — Michael Showalter, Jennifer Westfedt (based on the novel by Robinne Lee)
“The Imaginary” (Netflix) — Yoshiaki Nishimura (based on “The Imaginary” by Nishimura)
“Inside Out 2” (Pixar) — Meg LeFauve, Dave Holstein, Kelsey Mann (based on characters from the film “Inside Out”)
“It Ends With Us” (Sony Pictures) — Christy Hall (based on the novel by Colleen Hoover)
“Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.) — Scott Silver, Todd Phillips (based on characters by DC Comics)
“Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes” (20th Century Studios) — Josh Friedman (based on characters by Rick Jadda and Amanda Silver and the novel by Pierre Boulle)
“Lee” (Roadside Attractions) — Lem Dobbs, Marion Hume, John Collee (based on “The Lives of Lee Miller” by Antony Penrose)
“Moana 2” (Walt Disney Pictures) — David G. Derrick Jr (based on characters by Ron Clements, Jon Musker, Chris Williams, Pamela Ribon, Jared Bush, Don Hall, Aaron Kandell, Jordan Kandell)
“The Most Precious of Cargoes” (StudioCanal) — Michel Hazanavicius, Jean-Claude Grumberg (based on the novel by Grumberg)
“Mothers’ Instinct” (Neon) — Sarah Conradt (based on book “Derriere la haine” by Barbara Abel and the film “Duelles” directed by Oliver Masset-Depasse)
“Mufasa: The Lion King” (Walt Disney Pictures) — Jeff Nathanson (based on Disney’s “The Lion King” by Irene Mecchi, Jonathan Roberts, Linda Woolverton)
“Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM/Orion) — RaMell Ross, Joslyn Barnes (based on “The Nickel Boys” by Colson Whitehead)
“Nightbitch” (Searchlight Pictures) — Marielle Heller (based on “Nightbitch” by Rachel Yoder)
“Nosferatu” (Focus Features) — Robert Eggers (based on “Nosferatu – Eine Symphonie des Grauens” by Wilhelm Murnau and “Dracula” by Bram Stoker)
“Oh, Canada” (Kino Lorber) — Paul Schrader (based on “Foregone” by Russell Banks)
“The Order” (Vertical Entertainment) — Zach Baylin (based on “The Silent Brotherhood” by Kevin Flynn and Gary Gerhardt)
“The Outrun” (Sony Pictures Classics) — Amy Liptrot, Nora Fingscheidt, Daisy Lewis (based on the book by Liptrot)
“The Piano Lesson” (Netflix) — Virgil Williams, Malcolm Washington (based on the play by August Wilson)
“Queer” (A24) — Justin Kuritzkes (based on the novel by William S. Burroughs)
“Rez Ball” (Netflix) — Sydney Freeland, Sterlin Harjo (based on “Canyon Dreams” by Michael Powell)
“The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics) — Pedro Almodóvar (based on “What Are You Going Through” by Sigrid Nunez)
“Sing Sing” (A24) — Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John “Divine G” Whitfield (based on “The Sing Sing Follies” by John H. Richardson and “Breakin’ the Mummy’s Code” by Brent Buell)
“Six Triple Eight” (Netflix) — Tyler Perry (based on “WAC Corporal Lena Derriecott and the 6888th Central Postal Battalion” by Kevin M. Hymel)
“Small Things Like These” (Lionsgate) — Enda Walsh (based on the novel by Claire Keegan)
“Sonic the Hedgehog 3” (Paramount Pictures) — Pat Casey, Josh Miller, John Whittington (based on Sonic the Hedgehog by Sega)
“That Christmas” (Netflix) — Richard Curtis, Peter Souter (based on “That Christmas” by Curtis)
“Transformers One” (Paramount Pictures) — Eric Pearson, Andrew Barrer, Gabriel Ferrari (based on Transformers by Hasbro)
“Twisters” (Universal Pictures) — Mark L. Smith, Joseph Kosinski (based on characters by Michael Crichton and Anne-Marie Martin)
“Ultraman: Rising” (Netflix) — Shannon Tindle, Marc Haimes (based on “Ultraman” by Tsuburaya Productions)
“Unstoppable” (Amazon MGM) — Eric Champnella, Alex Harris, John Hindman (based on “Unstoppable: From Underdog to Undefeated: How I Became a Champion” by Anthony Robles, Austin Murphy)
“Venom: The Last Dance” (Sony Pictures) — Kelly Marcel (based on characters from Marvel Comics)
“Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl” (Netflix) — Mark Burton, Nick Park (based on “Wallace & Gromit” by Park)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures) — Winnie Holzman (based on musical “Wicked” by Stephen Schwartz, novel “Wicked” by Gregory Maguire and character from “The Wonderful Wizard of Oz” by L. Frank Baum)
“The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation) — Chris Sanders (based on the series by Peter Brown)
“Wildcat” (Oscilloscope Laboratories) — Ethan Hawke, Shelby Gaines (based on short stories by Flannery O’Connor)
“Young Woman and the Sea” (Walt Disney Pictures) — Jeff Nathanson (based on “Young Woman and the Sea” by Glenn Stout)
More Information (Oscars: Best Adapted Screenplay)
2024 category winner: “American Fiction” (Amazon MGM/Orion) — Cord Jefferson (based on “Erasure” by Percival Everett)
2024-2025 Oscars Calendar and Timeline (all dates are subject to change)
Eligibility period: Jan. 1, 2024 – Dec. 31, 2024
General entry, best picture, RAISE submission deadline: Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024
Governors Awards: Sunday, Nov. 17, 2024
Preliminary voting begins Monday, Dec. 9, 2024, at 9 a.m. PT.
Preliminary voting ends Friday, Dec. 13, 2024, at 5 p.m. PT.
Oscar Shortlists Announcement: Tuesday, Dec. 17, 2024
Eligibility period ends: Tuesday, Dec. 31, 2024
Nominations voting begins Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT.
Nominations voting ends Sunday, Jan. 12, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT.
Oscar Nominations Announcement: Friday, Jan. 17, 2025
Oscar Nominees Luncheon: Monday, Feb. 10, 2025
Final voting begins Tuesday, Feb. 11, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT
Final voting ends: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT
Scientific and Technical Awards: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025
97th Oscars: Sunday, March 2, 2025
Oscars Prediction Categories
2024 Oscar Predictions (Variety Awards Circuit)
About the Academy Awards
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Nineteen branches are represented within the nearly 11,000-person membership. The branches are actors, animators, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films, sound, visual effects and writers.
